Hydrogen bombs help gold anger on 1330 US oil weekly two consecutive losses

The news that North Korea successfully tested hydrogen bombs on weekends stimulated the market's safe-haven demand. On Monday, gold broke through the $1,330 mark; Hurricane Harvey hit US demand for crude oil. Last week, US oil ushered in two consecutive weeks of decline, but in Oil prices began to pick up on Friday.

· North Korea test-exploded hydrogen bombs, spot gold rushed to the $1,330 mark;

· Gold futures rose 4% last month, hitting a seven-month high;

· The non-agricultural performance is weak, and the Fed’s interest rate hike is falling again;

· The US political deadlock may turn around;

· Gold speculative net long positions increased for six consecutive weeks;

· Hurricane Harvey caused the two oils to run counter to each other last week;

· RBOB gasoline futures rose 13.4% last week;

· The number of US crude oil drillings was the same as last week;

· New York crude oil speculative net long position hit the biggest decline in five months.

Precious metal

The poor performance of US non-farm payrolls data on Friday night boosted gold prices. NYMEX December gold futures prices rose 8.20 US dollars or 0.6% to close at 1340.40 US dollars / ounce, the highest closing since September 27 last year. price. Overall, benefiting from the geopolitical situation and the continued turmoil in the US political arena, gold futures rose by 2.5% during the week; according to the main contract, gold futures rose by about 4% in the entire August transaction, hitting 1 The biggest monthly increase since the month.

At noon on Sunday, a magnitude 6.3 earthquake was detected near the Fengxili nuclear test site in North Korea. According to North Korea’s CCTV, North Korea successfully tested hydrogen bombs for intercontinental ballistic missiles. This heavy news triggered a huge market shock on Monday, spot gold and silver opened higher, spot gold once rose to 1337.92 US dollars / ounce, hit a new high since September 27, 2016, spot silver highest reported 17.837 US dollars / ounce, this year 4 New high since the 25th of the month.

The report released by the US Department of Labor on Friday at 20:30 showed that the number of new non-farm payrolls in the US fell short of expectations and the previous value in August, and the unemployment rate also rebounded from last month. Such weak data has hit the Fed's plan to raise interest rates further. The CME “Fed Observations” tool shows that the market's expectation of another interest rate hike in December has fallen rapidly from 31.1% before the data was released to 36.2%. Affected by this, spot gold once rose to 132.87 US dollars / ounce, straight into the 1330 US dollar mark, but later reported that the European Central Bank in December to adjust the QE plan news was interrupted, the gold rise was interrupted.

In general, the recent support for gold prices is still a risk-avoiding factor. For example, North Korea fired missiles over Japan in the early hours of Tuesday, which is the biggest contributor to pushing spot gold to break the $1,320 mark. The news that North Korea tested the hydrogen bomb on weekends pushed the price of gold to the $1,330 mark after the market opened on Monday. Therefore, investors need to pay close attention to changes in the situation on the Korean peninsula and prepare for tensions that may increase at any time.

In addition, FXTM chief market strategist Hussein Sayed has previously pointed out that US politics will play an important role in further pushing the price of gold, and the debt ceiling and the North American Free Trade Agreement are all closely watched. According to analysis, this hurricane may reduce the possibility of failure of the US government budget and debt negotiations. At the same time, according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Nuchin, the US government’s “very detailed” tax reform plan will meet the public before the end of September.

For this week's gold price trend, the Kitco Gold test shows that 56% of professional investors and 58% of ordinary investors believe that gold will continue to strengthen. Optimism was also reflected in the position. As of August 29, the speculative gold net long position increased by 22,609 lots to 231,047 lots, increasing for six consecutive weeks.

In other metal trading in NYMEX, silver futures for December delivery rose 24.1 cents, or 1.4%, to close at $17.816 per ounce, the highest closing price since April, as in last week's overall deal. Accumulated up 4%; copper futures for December delivery rose 2 cents or 0.6% to close at 3.118 US dollars / lb, up 2% last week; platinum futures for October delivery rose 10.50 US dollars or 1.1% , closed at $ 1009 / ounce, up 3.1% last week; December delivery of palladium futures prices soared 44.85 US dollars, to close at 977.10 US dollars / ounce, or 4.8%, last week, a cumulative increase of 5.5%.

Energy class

With the ravages of Hurricane Harvey coming to an end, refineries in the affected areas began to resume work, and the market's expectation of rising demand for crude oil returned. On Friday, NYMEX's WTI crude oil futures for October delivery rose 6 cents, or 0.1%, to $47.29 per barrel, but it still fell 1.2% last week. The impact of the hurricane will take time to recover; ICE November Brent crude futures for delivery fell 11 cents, or 0.2%, to $52.75 a barrel, up from around 1.5% last week.

In the past week, Hurricane Harvey has caused tremendous changes in the US energy industry. According to Reuters news, the hurricane and the ensuing floods once caused nearly 23% of the US refining capacity to disappear. As a result, crude oil demand and gasoline supply fell sharply. NYMEX's October RBOB gasoline futures price rose by about 13.4% last week, the biggest weekly gain since February this year, but it began to fall 3.1 cents or 1.8% on Friday. To $1.748/gallon.

It should be noted that due to the statistical cycle, the impact of the hurricane on the supply and demand of crude oil is not reflected in the inventory data. Last week's API crude oil inventories and EIA crude oil inventories recorded higher-than-expected declines, making the oil market less profitable. But analysts expect that the next EIA should see a sharp decline in oil product inventories and a sharp increase in crude oil inventories. In addition, as of the week of September 1, the number of active oil drilling in the United States was flat at 759.

There is good news outside the United States. According to foreign media surveys, OPEC's crude oil output in August this year decreased by 170,000 barrels to 32.68 million barrels per day from the previous year's high, which has been the biggest reduction in Libya's devastating situation. Because several domestic oil fields were shut down due to force majeure, the average daily output of the country fell back to 900,000 barrels last month, and it dropped to 660,000 barrels per day at the end of the month.

When the hurricane was raging, most people in the market expected that US crude oil demand would fall and lower oil prices. As of the week of August 29, the speculative net long position of New York crude oil decreased by 79,583 hands to 365,865 lots, the biggest drop since March this year.

In other energy trading in NYMEX, natural gas futures for October delivery closed up 3 cents, or 1%, to $3.07 per British thermal unit, up 5% this week.

[This week's prospects]

Important content to watch this week, data on Tuesday's Australia to September 5 Australian Reserve interest rate decision; Wednesday's Canada to September 6 central bank interest rate decision; Thursday's US to September 1 week API crude oil inventory And EIA crude oil inventories, the United States to September 2, the number of jobless claims in the week, the same day the European Central Bank will announce the euro zone to September 7th ECB main refinancing rate; Friday's Japan's GDP and trade data.

In terms of events and speeches, on Tuesday there was Fed Governor Brainard’s speech at the New York Economic Club; on Wednesday there were two questions from the 2017 FOMC voting committees – Kashkari and Kaplan; on Thursday, New York Fed President Dudley will be at New York University. The Money Market Practitioners Association delivered a speech, the Fed will also publish a Beibei book on economic conditions. After the European Central Bank announced the interest rate decision in the evening, Draghi will hold a press conference; on Friday, the same as the 2017 FOMC voting committee, the chairman of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve. Ke will make a speech.

In addition, due to the Labor Day holiday, the US CME metal, US crude oil and foreign exchange contracts will be closed early at 01:00 Beijing time on Tuesday; European ICE Brent crude oil contract will be closed early Tuesday at 01:30 Beijing time; Industrial and Commercial Bank of China 601398, the stock will be suspended at 01:00-04:00 account energy, account basic metal business.

(Editor: Fang Fengjiao HF055)