US data is hot, gold is still rising, predators are shorting

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International spot gold fell first and then rose on Wednesday (February 15), the US market hit a maximum of 1231.57 US dollars / ounce, Yellen testified in the US Congress on Tuesday, said that it will raise interest rates as soon as possible, boosting the dollar to 3 The high half of the week is a certain pressure on gold. The US data released during the day was relatively strong, but the price trend of gold was not significantly affected. The data shows that the US CPI recorded the largest monthly increase in January in the past four years; the US monthly retail sales data rose more than expected in the month, indicating that the continued good domestic demand in the US will support economic growth in the first quarter of this year; Growth, sales hit the biggest increase since 2011.

The US dollar continued to rise on Wednesday. As of press time, the US dollar index rose 0.08% to 101.31 points. US stocks rose on Wednesday, the Dow rose 0.84% ​​to 20,584.69 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.16% to 2,341.27 points; the Nasdaq rose 0.06% to 5,785.86 points. Crude oil rose on Wednesday, the US oil index rose 0.1% to $53.30 per barrel; the oil index rose 0.13% to $56.04 per barrel.

Analysts said that Yellen’s speech boosted the risky stock market and the US dollar. The three major US stock indexes hit a new high on Tuesday, and the US dollar also rose for many days. In the case of stable economic growth, the Fed’s interest rate hike is just around the corner, and the US dollar is strengthening. , should be vigilant against gold. According to information disclosed by regulatory documents on Tuesday (February 14), international financial tycoon Soros GE orge Soros has cleared gold stocks in the fourth quarter of 2016, along with well-known hedge fund manager and billionaire Paulson (John Paulson) also reduced its share of the SPDRGOLD Trust Fund. However, international investment guru Jim Rogers has once again published pessimistic remarks, and he has made investors “prepared” because “we will suffer the worst economic troubles in our lives”. In an interview with financial media, MacroVoices, he pointed out that although gold and silver may go down, he advised investors to buy gold and silver assets on dips. He also bought a lot of gold because he was lower in gold prices. The investment of the predator against gold reflects the differences in market expectations. However, from the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR positions change, the fund has increased 18 tons this year, but still lower than the same period last year, last year's Masukura was 69 tons. It may be difficult for gold to copy the bull market last year.

The US CPI recorded the largest monthly increase in the past four years in January but needs to be wary of the sharp drop in actual wages.

According to a government report released on Wednesday (February 15), the US consumer price index (CPI) monthly rate in January has recorded the largest increase since February 2013, indicating that US inflationary pressures are rising, plus The good performance of the job market, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates at least twice this year.

According to data released by the US Department of Labor (DOL), the core CPI rate for food and fuel without volatility rose by 0.3%, an increase of 0.2%.

The US Department of Labor also said in today's report that the core CPI rose by 2.3% in January, an increase of 2.1%, and an increase of 2.2% in December.

The data also showed that the US consumer price index rose by 0.6% in January, an increase of 0.3%, and the CPI annual rate rose by 2.5% in January, the highest since March 2012, mainly because gasoline prices soared 14.2% year-on-year. Estimated to increase by 2.4%.

(US CPI annual rate chart, source: Zerohedge, FX168 financial network

Despite this, the actual per capita weekly salary in the United States fell by 0.6% year-on-year, the largest year-on-year decline since November 2011, which laid a hidden danger for the inflation outlook.

(The actual salary is dropping sharply, source: Zerohod, FX168 financial network)

In addition, US energy prices hit their biggest monthly increase since June 2009.

(US energy price trend, source: Zerohod, FX168 financial network)

US January terrorist data growth year-on-year growth domestic demand will boost first quarter economic growth

According to data released by the US Department of Commerce (DOC) on Wednesday (February 15th), the monthly sales growth of US retail sales in January exceeded expectations. It was mainly boosted by household consumers purchasing electronic products and various commodities, indicating that the US continues to be positive. Domestic demand will support economic growth in the first quarter of this year.

According to the data, the retail sales of cars in the United States in January increased by 0.8% from the previous month, which is estimated to be 0.4%. The December data was also revised up to 0.4%. The US retail sales in January increased by 0.4% from the previous month. Increase by 0.1%.

(US retail sales monthly rate chart, source: FX168 financial network)

What is even more exciting is that US retail sales in January surged 5.6% year-on-year, the largest annual increase in nearly five years.

(US retail sales annual rate chart, source: Zerohod, FX168 financial network)

According to the report, 10 of the 13 major commodity sales categories recorded sales growth, especially for electronics, sports goods and apparel.

In addition, US retail sales in November increased by 3.8% year-on-year.

US retail sales data is published by the US Department of Commerce, which is the total value of goods sold in cash or credit, except for the service industry, including all stores that are primarily engaged in retail business. Data is commonly used by governments, businesses, and business groups to observe current economic conditions and trends. Consumer spending is critical to the US economy, so the index is considered an important factor in the economic development of the United States.

Reuters commented on US retail sales data for January, saying that US retail sales data rose more than expected in January, mainly driven by household consumers buying electronic products and various types of goods; sales of electronic products increased since June 2015 The largest, while the sales of building materials, clothing and department stores recorded the best performance in the past year. Good retail data indicates that the continued good domestic demand in the US will support economic growth in the first quarter of this year.

Outlook outlook

ABN Amro analyst Georgette Boele said, "The price of gold is still under pressure after Yellen’s speech yesterday. The dollar is gaining momentum. CPI and retail data will be released today. If the data is strong, gold will continue to fall below $1,220/oz. ."

JuliusBAer said in the report, "We are still vigilant about gold, in the case of expected solid growth, interest rate hikes and a stronger dollar."

International investment guru Jim Rogers has once again published pessimistic remarks. He has made investors “prepare” because “we will suffer the worst economic troubles in their lives”. Of course, as the “king of commodities”, Rogers does not. Concealing his preference for gold, he claims that he wants to have more gold.

In an interview with financial media, MacroVoices, he pointed out that although gold and silver may go down, he advised investors to buy gold and silver assets on dips. He also bought a lot of gold because he was lower in gold prices.

At 00:38 Beijing time, spot gold reported $123.19 per ounce, up $2.30, or 0.19%.